VIAV — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Sales engine. Most lacking: Faro seal and Cash it generates.
Worth $6.8 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $68.4 B.
Sales +53% last quarter (year over year) and +40% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 61%, operating margin 14%, return on equity -3%.
Free cash flow $159 M a year = 2.3% of its value.
Trades at 4.5× sales: 0.10 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 1% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 1.2%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (27%) · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 60 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year VIAV is up 62.6%. Over about two years: +190.2%.
- Today it sits 49.8% below its 52-week high ($55.33) and +74.6% above the low ($15.92).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 49.8%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 51% of days. Best day: +19.0%. Worst day: -14.4%.
- Annual volatility around 85%: in a normal year a ±85% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $27.86 +0.2% | $26.41 – $29.39 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $27.98 +0.6% | $25.50 – $30.70 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 38% | $28.10 +1.1% | $24.93 – $31.67 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $28.40 +2.2% | $23.98 – $33.64 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 39% | $29.07 +4.6% | $22.75 – $37.16 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 43% | $31.80 +14.4% | $20.79 – $48.64 |
Recent momentum: -40.7% over 20 days · -29.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for VIAV. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Could VIAV be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 79/100 (strong multibagger dna): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has VIAV gone up in the last year?
Viavi Solutions (VIAV) is up 62.6% over the last 12 months and trades at $27.80, 49.8% below its 52-week high ($55.33). 52-week range: $15.92 – $55.33.
How volatile is VIAV stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 85% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 49.8%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does VIAV have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy VIAV?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 24 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 39% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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