PLTR — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year PLTR is down 8.3%. Over about two years: +330.7%.
- Today it sits 14.7% below its 52-week high ($209.05) and +66.3% above the low ($107.27).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 48.2%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +29.5%. Worst day: -11.6%.
- Annual volatility around 65%: in a normal year a ±65% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 49% | $178.77 +0.2% | $171.63 – $186.20 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 49% | $179.62 +0.7% | $167.38 – $192.76 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 50% | $180.48 +1.2% | $164.76 – $197.70 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 52% | $182.64 +2.4% | $160.55 – $207.76 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 55% | $187.48 +5.1% | $155.54 – $225.98 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 63% | $207.20 +16.2% | $149.94 – $286.34 |
Recent momentum: -5.8% over 20 days · +3.7% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 PLTR government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
National center for veterans analysis and statistics platform
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $33 M. Stock since the announcement: +6.3%.
Procure palantir license for software as a service
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $32 M. Stock since the announcement: +6.3%.
TITAN moves from prototype to production: a $192M delivery order for 8 TITAN intelligence platforms over 18 months, split $127M to Palantir and $65M to Anduril.
💡 The prototype stage is over. A production delivery order with a unit count and a delivery window is recurring, dated revenue — and it makes Palantir the manufacturer of the Army deep-sensing node, not just its software vendor.
Ten-year Enterprise Agreement consolidating 75 separate contracts into one.
💡 Makes PLTR the Army's data backbone: long-horizon recurring revenue.
Expansion of the Maven Smart System (AI for combat targeting).
💡 Confirms Maven as the flagship military AI program; expands defense software spending.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Dedicated reportPalantir: The operating system of government… and AIRevenue nearly doubling, a margin from another planet and a valuation that demands perfection. How it makes money, how m…9 pp. · Free preview →
Sector study: The drone warUkraine changed warfare forever: $500 drones destroy $5 million tanks. The Pentagon wants to buy them by the million and…6 pp. · Free preview →
Golden Dome: The shield and who builds it$185 billion per the Pentagon, $1.2 trillion per Congress's budget office. The most ambitious missile-defense program si…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about PLTR
How much has PLTR fallen in the last year?
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is down 8.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $178.34, 14.7% below its 52-week high ($209.05). 52-week range: $107.27 – $209.05.
How volatile is PLTR stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 65% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 48.2%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does PLTR have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 5 contracts; the most recent: Veterans Affairs, $33 M, Sep 29, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy PLTR?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: neutral technical bias, RSI 28 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 55% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
Is there a full analysis of PLTR?
Yes: the Faro Library report "Palantir: The operating system of government… and AI" (9 pages), built from its official filings. It has a free preview.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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