MP — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year MP is down 40.9%. Over about two years: +110.1%.
- Today it sits 47.2% below its 52-week high ($72.65) and +2.3% above the low ($37.47).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 48.4%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 47% of days. Best day: +12.8%. Worst day: -12.0%.
- Annual volatility around 61%: in a normal year a ±61% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 41% | $38.41 +0.1% | $36.96 – $39.91 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $38.52 +0.4% | $36.05 – $41.16 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 41% | $38.64 +0.7% | $35.47 – $42.09 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 42% | $38.92 +1.5% | $34.49 – $43.93 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 43% | $39.57 +3.2% | $33.20 – $47.16 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 46% | $42.12 +9.8% | $31.08 – $57.08 |
Recent momentum: -18.1% over 20 days · -25.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 MP government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Rare-earth magnet public-private partnership; the DoD becomes its largest shareholder and buys 100% of output for ten years.
💡 Independence from China in critical magnets. The purest 'Follow the Contract' pattern there is.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Sector study — Rare earths: China's leverageWithout rare-earth magnets there are no missiles, drones, EVs or turbines. China controls almost all processing. The U.S…6 pp. · Free preview →
Carpenter Technology: The metal that keeps engines flyingA 137-year-old steelmaker that rose 12x in five years. Superalloys for jet turbines, record margins and 2029 targets. An…8 pp. · Free preview →
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about MP
How much has MP fallen in the last year?
MP Materials (MP) is down 40.9% over the last 12 months and trades at $38.35, 47.2% below its 52-week high ($72.65). 52-week range: $37.47 – $72.65.
How volatile is MP stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 61% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 48.4%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does MP have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 1 contract; the most recent: Department of Defense, ~$550M + 10-year offtake, Jul 2025.
Is now a good time to buy MP?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 38, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 43% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
🔦 Keep analyzing
Other stocks Faro watches