META — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year META is down 9.0%. Over about two years: +8.2%.
- Today it sits 22.0% below its 52-week high ($777.59) and +15.4% above the low ($525.72).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 28.8%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 49% of days. Best day: +11.3%. Worst day: -8.6%.
- Annual volatility around 47%: in a normal year a ±47% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $606.83 +0.0% | $589.08 – $625.11 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $607.02 +0.0% | $576.60 – $639.04 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 39% | $607.21 +0.1% | $568.22 – $648.87 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $607.69 +0.2% | $553.25 – $667.49 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 41% | $608.75 +0.3% | $531.34 – $697.44 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 42% | $612.81 +1.0% | $484.19 – $775.58 |
Recent momentum: -18.2% over 20 days · +2.5% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for META. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has META fallen in the last year?
Meta Platforms (META) is down 9.0% over the last 12 months and trades at $606.73, 22.0% below its 52-week high ($777.59). 52-week range: $525.72 – $777.59.
How volatile is META stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 47% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 28.8%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does META have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy META?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 8 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 41% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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