USO — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year USO is up 118.8%. Over about two years: +111.2%.
- Today it sits 7.5% below its 52-week high ($169.53) and +137.1% above the low ($66.17).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 32.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 56% of days. Best day: +12.9%. Worst day: -9.8%.
- Annual volatility around 48%: in a normal year a ±48% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 57% | $157.11 +0.1% | $152.44 – $161.92 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 58% | $157.58 +0.5% | $149.56 – $166.03 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 59% | $158.05 +0.8% | $147.74 – $169.07 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 60% | $159.24 +1.5% | $144.75 – $175.17 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 63% | $161.88 +3.2% | $140.99 – $185.87 |
| 3 months | Strongly bullish | 68% | $172.39 +9.9% | $135.70 – $219.02 |
Recent momentum: +8.9% over 20 days · +33.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for USO. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has USO gone up in the last year?
United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) is up 118.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $156.87, 7.5% below its 52-week high ($169.53). 52-week range: $66.17 – $169.53.
How volatile is USO stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 48% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 32.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does USO have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy USO?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 54, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 63% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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