UNG — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year UNG is down 29.8%. Over about two years: -31.1%.
- Today it sits 46.7% below its 52-week high ($16.90) and +0.0% above the low ($9.00).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 46.7%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 51% of days. Best day: +19.7%. Worst day: -24.9%.
- Annual volatility around 36%: in a normal year a ±36% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 38% | $8.99 -0.1% | $8.79 – $9.20 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 37% | $8.98 -0.2% | $8.64 – $9.34 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 35% | $8.97 -0.4% | $8.53 – $9.43 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 34% | $8.93 -0.7% | $8.32 – $9.59 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 32% | $8.86 -1.6% | $7.99 – $9.82 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 27% | $8.59 -4.6% | $7.18 – $10.26 |
Recent momentum: -14.7% over 20 days · -7.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for UNG. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has UNG fallen in the last year?
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) is down 29.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $9.00, 46.7% below its 52-week high ($16.90). 52-week range: $9.00 – $16.90.
How volatile is UNG stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 36% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 46.7%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does UNG have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy UNG?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 5 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 32% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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