SPCX — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the 98 sessions we have for SPCX it moved -15.3%.
- Today it sits 35.5% below its 52-week high ($211.39) and +26.0% above the low ($108.27).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 48.8%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 45% of days. Best day: +19.6%. Worst day: -16.4%.
- Annual volatility around 69%: in a normal year a ±69% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $136.14 -0.2% | $130.35 – $142.19 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $135.68 -0.5% | $125.84 – $146.29 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 38% | $135.22 -0.8% | $122.70 – $149.02 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 37% | $134.08 -1.7% | $116.87 – $153.83 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 36% | $131.61 -3.5% | $107.85 – $160.61 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 31% | $122.59 -10.1% | $86.83 – $173.07 |
Recent momentum: -20.3% over 20 days · +2.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for SPCX. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has SPCX fallen in the last year?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) is down 15.3% over the period with data and trades at $136.37, 35.5% below its 52-week high ($211.39). 52-week range: $108.27 – $211.39.
How volatile is SPCX stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 69% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 48.8%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does SPCX have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy SPCX?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 33, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 36% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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