PDBC — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year PDBC is up 43.0%. Over about two years: +41.1%.
- Today it sits 4.8% below its 52-week high ($20.34) and +46.1% above the low ($13.25).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 16.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 57% of days. Best day: +3.7%. Worst day: -4.3%.
- Annual volatility around 20%: in a normal year a ±20% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 55% | $19.37 +0.1% | $19.13 – $19.62 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 56% | $19.40 +0.2% | $18.98 – $19.83 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 57% | $19.43 +0.3% | $18.89 – $19.98 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 58% | $19.49 +0.7% | $18.73 – $20.29 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 60% | $19.64 +1.5% | $18.54 – $20.81 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 66% | $20.22 +4.4% | $18.30 – $22.35 |
Recent momentum: +0.6% over 20 days · +12.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for PDBC. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has PDBC gone up in the last year?
Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (PDBC) is up 43.0% over the last 12 months and trades at $19.36, 4.8% below its 52-week high ($20.34). 52-week range: $13.25 – $20.34.
How volatile is PDBC stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 20% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 16.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does PDBC have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy PDBC?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 35, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 60% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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