MMS — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Cash it generates and Room to grow. Most lacking: Balance sheet and Sales engine.
Worth $3.5 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $34.8 B.
Sales -5% last quarter (year over year) and +2% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 26%, operating margin 13%, return on equity 21%.
Free cash flow $354 M a year = 10.2% of its value.
Trades at 0.7× sales with no growth to back it.
Net debt equal to 48% of its value.
Government contracts with firm money = 16.2% of its value · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 1.8%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (32%) · above its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 34 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year MMS is down 20.3%. Over about two years: -23.8%.
- Today it sits 32.7% below its 52-week high ($98.93) and +27.7% above the low ($52.10).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 47.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 47% of days. Best day: +5.6%. Worst day: -16.5%.
- Annual volatility around 35%: in a normal year a ±35% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 58% | $66.51 -0.1% | $65.07 – $67.99 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 57% | $66.44 -0.2% | $63.97 – $69.01 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 57% | $66.37 -0.3% | $63.20 – $69.70 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 55% | $66.19 -0.5% | $61.76 – $70.93 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 52% | $65.79 -1.1% | $59.52 – $72.74 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 47% | $64.31 -3.4% | $54.05 – $76.51 |
Recent momentum: +22.3% over 20 days · +12.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 MMS government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Contact center operations
💡 Worth 11.52% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $402 M. Stock since the announcement: +25.1%.
Contact center operations
💡 Worth 3.83% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $134 M. Stock since the announcement: +17.7%.
Option year 2 exercise and funding realignment
💡 Worth 0.83% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $29 M. Stock since the announcement: +15.4%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about MMS
Could MMS be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 57/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has MMS fallen in the last year?
Maximus (MMS) is down 20.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $66.55, 32.7% below its 52-week high ($98.93). 52-week range: $52.10 – $98.93.
How volatile is MMS stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 35% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 47.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does MMS have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 3 contracts; the most recent: Health & Human Services, $402 M, Sep 30, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy MMS?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 80 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 52% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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