HAWK — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the 123 sessions we have for HAWK it moved -59.9%.
- Today it sits 60.6% below its 52-week high ($34.66) and +17.0% above the low ($11.67).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 66.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 39% of days. Best day: +9.7%. Worst day: -11.8%.
- Annual volatility around 64%: in a normal year a ±64% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 46% | $13.62 -0.2% | $13.08 – $14.18 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 45% | $13.55 -0.7% | $12.64 – $14.53 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 44% | $13.49 -1.2% | $12.33 – $14.76 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 41% | $13.33 -2.4% | $11.74 – $15.14 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 36% | $12.98 -4.9% | $10.80 – $15.61 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 27% | $11.75 -13.9% | $8.54 – $16.17 |
Recent momentum: -5.1% over 20 days · -45.8% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for HAWK. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has HAWK fallen in the last year?
HawkEye 360 (HAWK) is down 59.9% over the period with data and trades at $13.65, 60.6% below its 52-week high ($34.66). 52-week range: $11.67 – $34.66.
How volatile is HAWK stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 64% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 66.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does HAWK have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy HAWK?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 55, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 36% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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