GVA — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Room to grow. Most lacking: Business quality and Faro seal.
Worth $5.7 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $56.9 B.
Sales +23% last quarter (year over year) and +10% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 16%, operating margin 13%, return on equity -22%.
Free cash flow $444 M a year = 7.8% of its value.
Trades at 1.1× sales: 0.06 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 19% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 0.9%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (49%) · above its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 10 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year GVA is up 25.4%. Over about two years: +46.8%.
- Today it sits 19.6% below its 52-week high ($160.39) and +30.9% above the low ($98.50).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 33.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +11.8%. Worst day: -12.5%.
- Annual volatility around 43%: in a normal year a ±43% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 60% | $129.01 +0.1% | $125.59 – $132.52 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 60% | $129.21 +0.2% | $123.33 – $135.36 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 60% | $129.41 +0.4% | $121.86 – $137.42 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 59% | $129.91 +0.8% | $119.32 – $141.43 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 59% | $131.01 +1.6% | $115.83 – $148.18 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 59% | $135.31 +5.0% | $109.32 – $167.48 |
Recent momentum: +8.4% over 20 days · +0.5% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 GVA government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Inc., Watsonville, California, was awarded a $32,368,584 modification (P00015) to contract W91238-23-C-0014 for construction of a new northern abutment to the Sacramento Weir Widening project to address unforeseen geotechnical conditions and related engineering changes.
💡 Firm money at signing: $32 M. Stock since the announcement: +17.4%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about GVA
Could GVA be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 63/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has GVA gone up in the last year?
Granite Construction (GVA) is up 25.4% over the last 12 months and trades at $128.91, 19.6% below its 52-week high ($160.39). 52-week range: $98.50 – $160.39.
How volatile is GVA stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 43% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 33.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does GVA have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 1 contract; the most recent: Army, $32 M, Oct 16, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy GVA?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 71 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 59% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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