FRVO — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the 119 sessions we have for FRVO it moved -77.4%.
- Today it sits 80.6% below its 52-week high ($42.50) and +3.5% above the low ($7.97).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 81.2%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 36% of days. Best day: +30.6%. Worst day: -19.1%.
- Annual volatility around 117%: in a normal year a ±117% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $8.23 -0.2% | $7.65 – $8.86 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 37% | $8.19 -0.7% | $7.21 – $9.30 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 36% | $8.15 -1.2% | $6.92 – $9.61 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 34% | $8.06 -2.4% | $6.39 – $10.16 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 31% | $7.85 -4.9% | $5.61 – $10.99 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 23% | $7.10 -13.9% | $3.97 – $12.72 |
Recent momentum: -38.7% over 20 days · -68.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for FRVO. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
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How much has FRVO fallen in the last year?
Fervo Energy (FRVO) is down 77.4% over the period with data and trades at $8.25, 80.6% below its 52-week high ($42.50). 52-week range: $7.97 – $42.50.
How volatile is FRVO stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 117% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 81.2%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does FRVO have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy FRVO?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 23 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 31% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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