FLR — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Balance sheet and Room to grow. Most lacking: Business quality and Sales engine.
Worth $6.2 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $62.0 B.
Sales +9% last quarter (year over year) and -5% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin -1%, operating margin 3%, return on equity -45%.
Free cash flow $22 M a year = 0.3% of its value.
Trades at 0.4× sales with no growth to back it.
Net cash equal to 32% of its value.
Government contracts with firm money = 8.5% of its value · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 2.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (37%) · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 13 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year FLR is down 4.9%. Over about two years: -12.2%.
- Today it sits 19.3% below its 52-week high ($57.50) and +17.0% above the low ($39.63).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 24.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +16.9%. Worst day: -15.2%.
- Annual volatility around 50%: in a normal year a ±50% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 43% | $46.37 -0.0% | $44.94 – $47.84 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 43% | $46.34 -0.1% | $43.90 – $48.92 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 43% | $46.32 -0.1% | $43.19 – $49.67 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 43% | $46.26 -0.3% | $41.91 – $51.06 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 43% | $46.13 -0.5% | $39.97 – $53.23 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 42% | $45.63 -1.6% | $35.60 – $58.47 |
Recent momentum: -8.4% over 20 days · -18.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 FLR government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Fluor Marine Propulsion LLC, Arlington, Virginia, was awarded a $2,409,077,590 cost-plus-fixed-fee modification to a previously awarded contract for Naval Nuclear Propulsion work at the Naval Nuclear Laboratory.
💡 Worth 38.84% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $0 M. Stock since the announcement: +5.3%.
The purpose of this modification is to increase contract funding for 89233018cnr000004 with fluor by $ 469,414,150.04 from $5,844,462,672.01 to $6,313,876,822.05 for the option term. the total amount of the contract funding would be an increase from
💡 Worth 6.01% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $373 M. Stock since the announcement: -0.1%.
This administrative modification is issued to correct modification number 0181 dated 01/13/2026 which inadvertently identified the $115,865,899.73 of fund type 00705, 00706, and 06850 obligations as appropriated within the strategic integrated procur
💡 Worth 1.87% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $116 M. Stock since the announcement: -14.4%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about FLR
Could FLR be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 53/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has FLR fallen in the last year?
Fluor (FLR) is down 4.9% over the last 12 months and trades at $46.38, 19.3% below its 52-week high ($57.50). 52-week range: $39.63 – $57.50.
How volatile is FLR stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 50% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 24.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does FLR have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 3 contracts; the most recent: Navy, $2.41 B, Oct 23, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy FLR?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 38, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 43% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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