DBA — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Multibagger DNA is computed for companies, not ETFs or funds.
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year DBA is up 2.1%. Over about two years: +5.8%.
- Today it sits 9.1% below its 52-week high ($29.49) and +5.3% above the low ($25.44).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 9.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +3.0%. Worst day: -2.9%.
- Annual volatility around 13%: in a normal year a ±13% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 41% | $26.80 +0.0% | $26.59 – $27.02 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $26.81 +0.0% | $26.44 – $27.19 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 41% | $26.82 +0.1% | $26.33 – $27.31 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 42% | $26.83 +0.1% | $26.15 – $27.53 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 43% | $26.86 +0.2% | $25.88 – $27.88 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 46% | $26.99 +0.7% | $25.31 – $28.78 |
Recent momentum: -5.8% over 20 days · -3.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for DBA. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has DBA gone up in the last year?
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) is up 2.1% over the last 12 months and trades at $26.80, 9.1% below its 52-week high ($29.49). 52-week range: $25.44 – $29.49.
How volatile is DBA stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 13% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 9.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does DBA have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy DBA?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 4 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 43% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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